To combat the ongoing decline in birth rates, the Chinese government has initiated a new round of surveys aimed at understanding the reasons behind people's reluctance and fear of having children.
On October 17, the China Population and Development Research Center, under the National Health Commission, announced that the survey will cover 150 monitored counties and 1,500 communities, with a sample size of 30,000 participants.
The survey will focus on the key factors influencing people's willingness to have children, aiming to uncover the real challenges and needs families face in raising children and providing a comprehensive analysis of the reasons behind their reluctance to procreate.
China is grappling with a serious population crisis. As birth rates continue to plummet, the future development of the nation, its social structure, and economic stability are all under significant threat.
According to the National Health Commission, since 1991, China's birth rate has consistently fallen below the replacement level, meaning that the average number of children born to each couple is insufficient to sustain a stable population. In 2022, the country recorded its first negative population growth, and the aging demographic has become increasingly pronounced, placing immense pressure on the nation's social security system.
The decline in birth rates is not a new issue; rather, it has been a gradually emerging trend. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates that the birth rate fell below the replacement level as early as 1991, with rates recorded at 1.22 in 2000 and 1.18 in 2010, highlighting the dual pressures of negative growth and an aging population.
This trend reflects not only changes in attitudes toward childbirth but also the lag in policy adjustments. Statistics show that by 2023, China's birth rate had dropped to the lowest level in the world, becoming an urgent social concern.
Since the 1970s, China's family planning policies, particularly the one-child policy, have had a profound impact on the country's demographic structure. While this policy effectively controlled population growth and alleviated economic pressure in the short term, it has led to a sustained decline in birth rates over the long haul.
As the economy has developed and society has evolved, policies have gradually relaxed, transitioning from allowing one additional child to a universal two-child policy, and now to a three-child policy. This progression reflects the country's confusion and adjustments in response to the population crisis. Historical lessons indicate that a singular focus on birth control policies can no longer address the complexities of demographic realities; policymakers must adopt more flexible strategies.
Although the government has made adjustments to its policies, the long-term effects of earlier family planning measures are deeply rooted in society. Many families have developed fears and concerns about childbirth due to their experiences under past policies.
Moreover, the intricate relationship between interest groups and policymakers often results in inaccuracies in data and ineffective policy implementation. Reports have indicated that some population research organizations manipulated data to maintain the stability of family planning policies, delaying necessary policy adjustments. Consequently, the country has struggled to respond effectively to the declining birth rate crisis, leading to the current predicament.
The decreasing willingness to have children is closely tied to multiple economic factors. High costs associated with raising children, educational expenses, and increasing life pressures have led many young families to opt out of having children or to limit the number they have.
Economist Yang Fan argues that reducing the costs of childbirth and child-rearing, as well as creating a more favorable employment environment, are crucial for improving birth rates. As attitudes toward parenting shift, many families feel the weight of economic burdens, which significantly diminishes their willingness to have children.
Additionally, surveys reveal that many young people perceive a conflict between the time and energy required to raise a child and their economic reality, making them more likely to choose not to have children or to delay starting a family.
Regional differences in family values also significantly impact birth rates. In certain areas, particularly in the Beibu Gulf region, strong family values lead to relatively high birth rates. For instance, in places like Qinzhou and Yulin in Guangxi, the birth rate exceeds 2.4. Conversely, in major cities such as Beijing and Shanghai, the decline of traditional family beliefs has resulted in a sharp drop in birth rates, with Shanghai's rate plummeting to as low as 0.6. This phenomenon underscores the critical role that social and cultural factors play in shaping birth rates, and the government must fully consider these cultural contexts when formulating policies.
Despite the government's introduction of various measures to encourage childbirth, the effectiveness of these policies is hampered by numerous constraints. High housing prices, educational costs, and employment pressures have left many young families in a dilemma regarding their reproductive choices. For example, soaring real estate prices make it difficult for many young people to afford suitable living conditions for raising children, while rising educational expenses further increase the financial burden on families. The singular and short-term nature of these policies fails to address these deeper issues at their core.
Amid these complex challenges, whether China can find effective solutions remains uncertain. Long-term policy planning and adjustments to social structures will be crucial in restoring birth rates. The government must prioritize the actual needs of families and implement practical measures to effectively tackle the increasingly severe population crisis.