Japan has been facing a rice shortage crisis for over four months. Supermarket shelves in cities like Tokyo and Osaka are empty, and 80% of convenience stores have run out of rice. The Osaka city government has even begun distributing "rice vouchers."
Since August, the purchase of rice and packaged rice at supermarkets and other retail stores in Japan has surged to 1.5 times the usual amount for this time of year. Fearing a shortage, many consumers are rushing to stock up. Currently, the average price of rice in Japan has nearly doubled since March, reaching a 20-year high.
As of the end of June 2024, private rice stockpiles stood at 1.56 million tons, a 21% decrease from the previous year and the lowest level since statistics began in 1999. Yet, the Japanese government has not taken any special measures.
Despite the nationwide rice shortage, the Japanese government remains reluctant to release reserve rice. The Minister of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries stated that the new rice harvest is about to hit the market, and they would not release the reserve rice to avoid disrupting rice distribution.
However, the price of the new rice crop in 2024 is also high. JA Group's estimated payment to farmers in major production areas like Niigata and Hokkaido is 20-40% higher than the previous year.
Japanese media analysts point out that while rising rice prices may help boost farmers' incomes in the short term, it could also accelerate the shift of consumers away from rice. If Japan falls into a vicious cycle of reduced demand leading to suppressed production, the country's food supply foundation could become fragile.
Behind this chaos lies Japan’s traditional agricultural policy of controlling supply to prioritize rice price stability. To maintain rice prices, Japan long implemented a policy aimed at actively controlling the scale of cultivated land and rice production. Although this policy was discontinued in 2018, its suppressive effects on rice production have been hard to reverse.
While Japan's "rice shortage" has not yet led to serious consequences, and the government confidently claims that the crisis will soon be resolved, the situation has nonetheless sparked fresh concerns about global food security, especially since this shortage is happening in Japan, an economically developed country. This has renewed global attention and concern over food security issues.